Friday, September 12, 2008

Ike ... #4

This post will probably be updated every hour or so, so keep checking back, OK? I'll highlight the time in bold to help orient you a little.

There's a tiny bit of good news about Ike (at least as of 7 am) ... his pressure has increased again. It's now at 956 millibars, up from 953. Although the NHC is still holding steady with his winds (105 mph), at this time it doesn't appear as tho he will be strengthening further.

It's almost a certainty that he will hit Galveston almost head on, the eye traveling up I-45 through Houston and then rapidly continuing north. He is still approximately 200 miles southeast of Galveston, but the waves down there are already crashing over the sea wall (which is about 16' high).

Now, if those projections hold true, the eye will pass 20+ miles east of my house. That's a good thing.

Current projected maximum sustained wind speeds at my house (zip code 77099 ... southwest side of Houston, very near the intersection of Beltway 8 and Highway 59) still show 75mph on this site. Even though the NHC's latest revised advisory came out over half an hour ago, their figures have still not been updated.

[I checked just a few minutes ago. Let me check it again, hitting the 'refresh' button, of course. ... ... Nope. Still showing the 4am figures.]

That's kind of a neat site. If you hover over any zip code for a fraction of a second, it will give you more info. Looks like they're updating every three hours.

Have sheets and clothes in the dryer. Did the dishes. Made some more ice cubes. Now, I have to get out in the backyard and tackle the grass. More later ... ...

10 am ... Latest info ... pressure has dropped again -- just a couple of millibars ... windspeed about the same (105 mph).

It looks like there's going to be just a humongous storm surge all along the upper Texas coast and throughout Galveston Bay. Altho the eye of the storm is not supposed to cross the coastline until 1 or 2 am tomorrow morning, the force of Ike's winds will be felt for 100 miles out from the center. He's huge!! I think I heard someone say that he covered 80% of the Gulf of Mexico at one point.

I know this is probably going to sound really silly to some of you, but it still is not certain where, exactly, he is going to make landfall. A definite turn to the north needs to begin pretty quickly if my house is going to be on the western side of this storm.

The best projections continue to be a direct hit on Galveston with the storm proceeding to the northwest, but as I said, he's still moving west.

That's it for now. I'll probably do another post at 1pm, after the next official update. Think I'll start #5 with that one. So, bye for now!


Tammy said...

Things don't look good in Galveston. You said it's 200 miles away from there, what time is it projected to hit land? I'll go check you post again in a minute and see if I missed it there somewhere.

Are your daughter and her family in a safe area? Do they live fairly close to you or on the other side of Houston? I remember it took a bit to drive to their house in your mother's day post. Hoping they are not in danger.....

I guess when we stop seeing posts from you we'll know your power has gone out.

Take care, Goldenrod.

Goldenrod said...

It's about 190 miles away now, Tammy. Check my 10am update for more 'answers' to your questions. However, hurricanes don't like to give away any of their secrets.

That's why, in these kinds of posts, you see so many qualifying statements. I wrote in a comment to one of my daughter's posts, "Now that Josephine has completely disappeared from the picture, Karina (?) went 'who knows where', and Lowell doesn't appear as tho he will be a factor, all fidgets, twidgets, and fears can be fully concentrated on Ike.

The only reason that the forecasters don't know where he will make landfall is that HE doesn't even know where he will make landfall! (He just hasn't decided yet.)

Sometimes I get the feeling that these hurricanes 'sit out there' absorbing all of the panic they're 'creating' by their indecisiveness, and then strike out quickly in another direction to see if they can cause a different group of people to go berserk. (Chuckling all the way, of course!)"

She responded, "Yes, I can absolutely picture hurricanes maliciously snickering as they wait for the tension to build. Ike's doing a fine job onstage just now ... "

That exchange took place two days ago, when it really was quite unclear where Ike might decide to head next.

It's more clear now, but still not definite.

BTW, DD and family live in Katy, which is west of Houston. I think their zip code is on that map I've referenced for wind speeds. Let me go back and look it up. Yes! Their zip code is 77450, north and west of here. You shouldn't have any problem finding it. It's a pretty big zip code, but let me know if you do, OK?